All-In Podcast Surfaces Four Investment Ideas as Investor Competition Revives Sohn Conference Format
June 12, 2026 - All-In Liquidity Event
Chamath Palihapitiya revived the legendary Sohn Conference format at the All-In Liquidity event, bringing four institutional investors to pitch their highest conviction ideas in a competition that revealed meaningful insight into underappreciated opportunities across markets. The format delivered genuine alpha, with the winning pitch identifying a casino operator trading at half of replacement cost while sitting on what could be a transformational Japanese gaming asset.
MGM Resorts Emerges as Consensus Winner with Hidden Osaka Casino Optionality
Aaron Cowen of Suvretta Capital Management took top honors with his pitch on MGM Resorts, identifying the stock as a compelling value play at thirty-seven dollars when he prepared the presentation, though shares have since rallied to the high forties following Barry Diller's forty-eight dollar takeover bid. Cowen made clear he would not tender his shares at that price, arguing the company could be worth well over one hundred fifty dollars when accounting for hidden assets the market is ignoring.
The core thesis centers on MGM's license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan, scheduled to launch in 2030. Cowen emphasized that Japan already operates a forty billion dollar gambling market through pachinko parlors and horse racing, larger than Macau's thirty billion and four times the size of the Las Vegas market. The Osaka property is strategically positioned closer to Shanghai than Macau and roughly equidistant to Beijing, making it an attractive weekend destination for Chinese gamblers who represent the most lucrative customer segment in global gaming.
Cowen estimated the Osaka opportunity could generate two billion dollars of EBITDA annually, with MGM owning forty percent of the property plus management fees. He valued this asset alone at roughly fifty dollars per share, separate from the Vegas properties he pegs at low sixties. The setup becomes even more compelling with Diller, who now owns twenty-six percent of MGM, making a financial rather than strategic bid. As Cowen noted, "Barry is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer and he's doing it to get rich."
The secondary optionality comes from Dubai, where MGM is building a complex with three hundred thousand square feet of space designed specifically for casino operations once the emirate legalizes gambling. With competitor Wynn opening a property forty-five minutes away in Ras Al Khaimah in two years, Cowen believes Dubai will likely move to capture that revenue stream locally. He values this potential at another forty to fifty dollars per share.
When asked about entertainment monetization, Cowen acknowledged this wasn't his primary focus but noted separately that industry sources indicate Diller has been spending considerable time trying to reinvent entertainment at the properties, believing this segment is significantly undermonetized. The stat that really captures this opportunity is that the Venetian generates an incremental one million dollars of EBITDA daily when the Sphere has a show running, demonstrating how entertainment draws amplify gambling revenue.
Talen Energy Positions as Replacement Cost Arbitrage on Power Infrastructure Buildout
Dan Dreyfus of Bornite Capital presented what may be the purest replacement cost arbitrage in the competition, pitching Talen Energy at a twenty-five billion dollar enterprise value against forty-five billion in replacement cost. The company owns two gigawatts of nuclear power and six gigawatts of natural gas baseload capacity, meaning the equity could more than double simply to reach replacement value before accounting for any premium during a supply-constrained cycle.
Dreyfus framed the opportunity within a structural power demand cycle driven by technological breakthroughs, arguing persuasively that AI demand merely turbocharges what would already be a twenty-year period of tight power markets. He referenced Sam Zell's investment philosophy directly, stating "If you can buy an asset, a hard asset at below replacement cost for an asset that's going to be needed in the future where we're going to need to build new capacity of that asset, then you buy that asset at the discount to replacement cost. You hold it and you sell it at a big premium to replacement cost when the market wakes up."
The regional context is staggering. The PJM grid operator forecasts needing one hundred six gigawatts of new power over the next ten years in just the Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland region. For perspective, that equals Japan's total power consumption deployed in one small part of the United States over a decade. Dreyfus emphasized repeatedly that supply chain constraints make this buildout timeline essentially impossible, which will keep existing capacity and power prices tight regardless of whether AI demand materializes.
On valuation, Dreyfus outlined three scenarios. In the base case where management does nothing beyond letting their Amazon data center contract roll up, Talen generates fifty dollars per share of free cash flow against a stock trading in the high thirties, implying a seven times multiple. If they sign additional data center contracts at premium prices or power prices rise modestly, that grows to seventy dollars of annual free cash flow. The bull case involves building just four gigawatts of the one hundred needed in the region, which could drive free cash flow above one hundred dollars per share.
When pressed on regulatory risk around rising electricity prices, Dreyfus argued the solution involves pairing power purchase agreements with data centers, forcing them to deploy batteries and peaker plants to manage peak demand periods while new baseload capacity gets built. He characterized this as a workable band-aid that allows both AI buildout and consumer price stability, though the political economy risk remains the primary downside case investors must handicap.
Aktis Oncology Offers Platform Optionality in Radiopharmaceuticals with Near-Term Clinical Catalysts
Oleg Nodelman of EcoR1 Capital pitched Aktis Oncology as a billion dollar market cap radiopharmaceutical company with five hundred million in enterprise value and cash to fund operations beyond critical 2027 milestones. The company went public with a three hundred million dollar IPO that was eighteen times oversubscribed and included a one hundred million order from Eli Lilly, providing significant validation of both the science and commercial potential.
Nodelman positioned radiopharmaceuticals as the latest evolution in cancer warfare, describing them as "a swarm of micro drones small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition, then detonate a precisely sized warhead with a blast radius of one hundred microns or the diameter of a single cell." This represents meaningful advancement over earlier generations of chemotherapy, targeted therapies, and immunotherapy by combining precise targeting with localized cell destruction and minimal collateral damage.
The company's platform uses mini proteins that can carry any radioactive payload, are complex enough to target various cancer markers, and small enough to clear the body with minimal side effects. Critically for de-risking, physicians can verify target engagement in early trials through imaging, confirming the drug reaches tumors before investing in late-stage development. Aktis initially focused on validated targets including nectin-4 for bladder cancer and B7H3, which is expressed across every major solid tumor including prostate, colorectal and lung cancer.
Clinical data from both lead programs is expected in 2027, with nectin-4 results coming as early as first quarter. If either program shows efficacy signals, Nodelman believes the market will value not just those specific assets but the entire platform, representing "the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come." He noted fifteen billion in recent M&A and deal-making in radiotherapy as major pharmaceutical companies including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer and Lilly build capabilities and actively seek pipeline assets.
One particularly interesting element is the inherent moat in radiopharmaceuticals. Generics rarely traffic in this space, and because the class involves radioisotopes with specific sourcing requirements, it remains largely off-limits to Chinese competition that has plagued other biotech categories. Aktis specifically uses actinium sourced from radium-226, a waste product from U.S. nuclear programs in the fifties and sixties that isn't available in China due to their different enrichment pathway using uranium and plutonium.
When challenged on why the stock trades flat since the IPO despite the Lilly validation, Nodelman attributed this to biotech investors being "insanely short-term oriented" even with data only eight or nine months away. He expects accumulation to begin in the second half of this year ahead of first quarter 2027 results. The triangulated valuation of ten billion or two hundred dollars per share assumes just one program reaches market, providing multiple paths to value creation.
GEODNET Presents Decentralized RTK Network as Infrastructure Play on Physical AI
Kyle Samani, formerly of Multicoin Capital and known for leading all three pre-launch investment rounds in Solana, pitched GEODNET as the world's largest real-time kinematic positioning network trading at one hundred fifty million fully diluted market cap. The crypto token represents an eighty percent revenue share from a company generating eleven million in annualized revenue growing more than three times year-over-year.
RTK technology provides two-centimeter positioning accuracy versus two meters for standard GPS, a hundred times improvement that enables applications across autonomous vehicles, agricultural robotics, drones and consumer robotics. GEODNET has deployed twenty-two thousand base stations globally since 2022, roughly double the combined total of incumbent providers Trimble, Hexagon and Topcon that have been building networks for twenty to thirty years. The network now covers one hundred fifty countries, eleven thousand cities and eighty percent of global population.
The breakthrough enabling this rapid deployment is a decentralized model where individuals purchase base stations for a few hundred dollars, install them on rooftops, and earn GEODNET tokens for broadcasting positioning data. This creates dramatically lower cost structure than traditional telecom-style buildouts while generating powerful network effects. Samani characterized the business as "a very natural monopoly" similar to how telecom networks evolved, with GEODNET now the largest and fastest-growing network with the lowest cost structure.
Customer traction includes flagship brands across multiple verticals. John Deere uses GEODNET for their Global Unmanned Spraying Systems, with systems deployed in Napa Valley vineyards. DJI, the world's largest drone manufacturer, has integrated GEODNET into many models. TomTom leverages GEODNET data to update maps for essentially every autonomous vehicle program globally. The USDA now subsidizes farmers and ranchers to adopt precision agriculture technologies powered largely by GEODNET's network.
On unit economics, customers typically spend sixty thousand dollars in year one but scale to one hundred seventy thousand by year two, representing three times growth as usage expands. The company added five times more customers last year, and with eighty percent of revenue used for open market token buybacks, the revenue share model creates direct value accrual to token holders. The remaining twenty percent covers all R&D and business development costs, demonstrating remarkable capital efficiency.
The primary pushback centered on competition from satellite-based alternatives, with one questioner noting SpaceX or similar providers could deploy micro-satellites providing sub-centimeter resolution to replace both GPS and RTK ground stations. Samani countered that ground-based solutions will always win on cost, with base stations costing a few hundred dollars versus satellite economics, and on energy consumption, which matters significantly for battery-powered applications like drones. However, this represents the key long-term risk to the investment case as launch costs continue declining.
From a regulatory perspective, the token structure as an eighty percent revenue share raises securities law questions, though Samani expressed optimism around the Clarity Act framework without providing definitive legal analysis. The illiquidity represents another practical constraint, with Samani acknowledging difficulty deploying more than modest capital without moving the market significantly at current volumes.
The consensus ranking among the panel placed MGM first, Talen second, with Aktis and GEODNET as more speculative lottery tickets offering asymmetric upside but meaningful zero risk. Chamath characterized the choice as differing primarily in position sizing rather than quality, noting he could deploy tens of millions in MGM and Talen without market impact while GEODNET and Aktis require smaller allocations appropriate to their risk profiles and liquidity constraints. The audience vote gave Talen fifty percent support versus twenty-four percent for MGM, though the investor panel reversed this with MGM taking top honors for balancing downside protection from the Diller bid floor against multiple paths to two to three times upside over a two-year timeframe.