Amprius Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance a Third Time to $145 Million, but Trims EBITDA Outlook and Burns $13.8 Million of Cash as It Builds Supply Ahead of Demand

Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Call, November 11, 2026

Amprius Technologies reported record third-quarter revenue of $39.1 million, up 83% year over year and 15% sequentially, and lifted its 2026 revenue target to $145 million from at least $140 million. This is the third consecutive raise, following an initial outlook of more than $125 million in March. The company also lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to at least $2.5 million from more than $4 million in August. CFO Ricardo Rodriguez attributed the cut to $2.9 million of additional operating spending, which only partly offsets the roughly $1.4 million of gross profit added by the higher revenue. Cash fell $13.8 million in the quarter to $60.7 million, with no debt.

Margin Recovery Is Back-Loaded and Q4 Carries a Heavy Lift

Gross margin was 26.9% in the third quarter, close to the 27.3% in Q2 and up from 15% a year ago. Rodriguez said two headwinds cost about 8 points of margin. Mix took about 4 points, driven by more cylindrical cells, much of it shipping against the large European order, and by more North American shipments. Freight took the other 4 points as the company shipped by air to meet demand. About 4 points were recovered through lower Fremont expenses, including $800,000 reclassified to R&D, and through pricing. Freight totaled 11% of revenue in the quarter, which Rodriguez called "painful."

The company still expects full-year gross margin of at least 28%, against 25.1% through nine months. That implies a fourth-quarter margin of almost 35% on guided revenue of about $43.3 million, up about 11% from Q3. Rodriguez said Q4 orders should carry a richer mix with more pouch cells. He also pointed to fixed-cost absorption, pricing, and a shift from air to ocean freight starting around year-end, which he said can halve freight cost, worth about 5 points at the current run rate. He described the freight benefit as "mostly a 2027 benefit," though the company is pursuing it before year-end. He said "nothing about our path to gross margins above 30% has changed," while cautioning it "won't be a straight line up and to the right."

Rodriguez said the Q4 revenue guide is shaped by the margin goal. "If we weren't so focused on managing the margins in Q4, there could be additional upside on the top line," he said, adding that with a healthy backlog, demonstrating the path to profitability matters more than building the revenue base alone.

Working Capital Build Drove the Cash Decline

Operations used $7.8 million of cash and capital expenditures were $5.2 million, all at Fremont in support of Defense Innovation Unit-backed investments. Management described the working capital build as deliberate. Prepaid expenses rose $14 million to $18.9 million, including advances to manufacturing partners to secure supply for Q4 and 2027. Receivables rose $5.2 million to $45.9 million and inventory rose $4.4 million to $15.9 million. Rodriguez said the inventory position is what now allows ocean shipping. Working capital was $107.8 million and stockholders' equity was $124.7 million.

Operating expenses were $15.2 million, up $1.7 million sequentially, or about $900,000 excluding the Fremont reallocation, mostly for development including SiCore 500. Net loss was $3.5 million, or $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $1 million. The company reiterated a full-year net loss of $10 million or less, about $8 million excluding the Q2 warrant charge of $1.9 million, and an EPS loss of $0.07 or less on 143.4 million shares. Capital expenditures are expected to stay below $10 million. The outlook includes about $6 million of work under the $18.1 million DIU agreement in Q4, recorded as other income rather than revenue.

$75 Million Department of War Contract Anchors U.S. Pouch Cell Capacity

In September, Amprius was selected for a competitive $75 million contract under the Department of War's Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program, with $22.3 million obligated. The contract retrofits an existing U.S. lithium-ion line operated by a major South Korean battery maker, converting it from EV cells to Amprius pouch cells for Group 1, 2 and 3 drones. The line is expected to reach capacity of 12 million pouch cells a year in early 2028, and the total conversion is expected to cost about $100 million including in-kind contributions from Amprius.

CEO Tom Stepien said the program has 15 milestones over 24 months and held its kickoff in Washington last week. The company and its partner spend first and are reimbursed. Amprius will invoice the government and pass most funds through to South Korea for tools. "It will start to look real once we start to deliver equipment to the factory," he said, which he expects in summer or fall of 2027. He clarified that the $75 million is separate from the $18 million DIU program, and both are underway.

The company also signed a contract manufacturing agreement with U.S.-based CAMINUS in Indianapolis, with pouch volume production targeted for the first quarter of 2027. The DIU pilot line in Fremont starts production in December. Stepien said 28 of 30 new tools are installed, and the line can make 700 to 1,000 cells a day at steady state for quick-turn samples and new chemistries. Rodriguez said the U.S. and South Korean additions should bring 270 to 300 megawatt hours of annual capacity, depending on mix. Amprius is shipping NDAA-compliant cells today and expects fully domestic NDAA-compliant production in 2027. Stepien said all 18 cell components have been reviewed with the Department of War, which is "happy with it."

SiCore 500 and a Move Into Subsea

Amprius introduced SiCore 500, a 500 watt-hour per kilogram cell for long-endurance aviation, three months ahead of the schedule shown on its performance road map, according to Rodriguez. Stepien said previous cells at this energy density required custom tools and non-standard formats, whereas SiCore 500 is designed for commercial lithium-ion equipment and standard formats, making it compatible with the contract manufacturing network. Shipments to high-altitude platform system customers begin in Q4, targeting platforms that fly between 60,000 and 65,000 feet for weeks or months.

The company also began shipping SiCore cells to a leading European maker of autonomous deep-sea vehicles that operate below 3,000 meters, the first use of the technology underwater. Stepien said battery content scales with vehicle size, which are generally larger than drones, and that the ability to handle 3,000 meters of depth is "somewhat unique to our design." Quantum Systems, which Amprius has supplied for several years on its Vector and Twister platforms, was highlighted as a durable customer.

Regional Mix Shifts Toward North America; Europe Remains Largest

North America revenue more than doubled to $12.2 million, or 31% of Q3 sales versus 19% in Q2, and was up 2.3x year over year. Europe held steady at $23.3 million, nearly 60% of the total. Stepien said the increase shows defense budget numbers translating into orders. For 2027, Rodriguez said a doubling of U.S. revenue would be his best estimate, largely dependent on adding capacity at CAMINUS and in South Korea. Stepien said 2027 will remain drone-dominant, with eVTOL, robotics and other segments making the mix more balanced by 2030.

On supply geography, Stepien said customers increasingly ask for batteries from specific locations. The NDAA requirement lands in about 14 months, generally the beginning of 2028, while Europe has no equivalent law but is showing preferences. Amprius is in discussions with European contract manufacturers, and an engineer is visiting one this week. A fourth South Korean partner has been signed. To protect intellectual property, one South Korean manufacturer makes all Amprius anodes and supplies coils to assembly partners such as CAMINUS.

Market Size, Share and Long-Term Targets

Amprius estimates 2026 defense-related cell demand from the U.S. and allies at $445 million, up 28% from 2025. It says its own growth is roughly 3.5x the market's, and an analyst put its implied share near 30%. Rodriguez noted only about 75% of Amprius sales are into that cell market. By 2030 the company expects loitering munitions and interceptors to be the fastest-growing segments, at a 58% CAGR. Analyst Colin Rusch noted the 2030 revenue target in the deck was raised to $800 million from $600 million. Rodriguez said it is anchored in supply the company expects to have, including a roughly $200 million capacity add in 2030 from the South Korean partner and CAMINUS.

On demand, Stepien cited the proposed 2027 budget's more than $50 billion in outlays for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, while acknowledging that Congress has not passed the authorization and the final number may be lower. He also acknowledged that the midterm elections could affect the 2027 budget. He said allied programs in Ukraine, Taiwan and the U.K. total more than $20 billion over three years, with further programs in Germany, Poland, the Nordics, Japan and South Korea. Asked whether a Democratic shift could even help through Ukraine support, he said it could, and noted that one-way drone demand might fall if peace came sooner while surveillance drones would likely rise.

Pricing Is Firm on Pouch, Tougher on Cylindrical

Analyst Mark Shooter observed that the $350 per kilowatt-hour cell pricing in the market slide appeared well below the roughly $600 to $1,300 per kilowatt-hour pack-level pricing he sees. Rodriguez said the figure is a conservative long-term floor, assumes about 70% cylindrical cells, and excludes pack add-ons. He said recent pricing has trended higher than expected a little over a year ago, especially for pouches, because "there's no capacity out there in the market." Cylindrical pricing is more challenging. Molicel has a high-performance cylindrical cell that Rodriguez said it is not pricing as high as it should, and other players sell standard cylindrical cells at low prices, which "sometimes make us even question, okay, if we cannot source a cylindrical cell at a certain cost, why do we bother with this." Amprius said it does not chase low-cost FPV drone business served by graphite cells.

Rodriguez said that the company is negotiating with contract manufacturers to charge fixed costs as fixed expenses so Amprius can share in operating leverage, and is building in-house capabilities to take over setup and engineering work. On competitors, he said some have issued press releases matching Amprius' previous-generation specs, and that several customers placed larger orders with them "only for them to not be fulfilled because the product only exists in a slide." He estimated the second and third largest competitors can do at most $80 million and $40 million of revenue a year, respectively, and are capacity-constrained.