ASML Lifts 2026 Sales Guidance to EUR 43-45 Billion as Memory Demand Surges 75% and Management Signals New Pricing Power
Q2 2026 earnings call, July 15, 2026 — AI-driven capacity race pushes logic and memory customers into multi-year commitments
ASML delivered a second-quarter beat and, more importantly, used the call to reset full-year 2026 guidance sharply higher, now targeting total net sales of EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion with gross margin of 54% to 56%. The move reflects what CEO Christophe Fouquet described as a "perfect storm" of AI-driven capacity additions across both advanced logic and DRAM, with customers revising capital expenditure plans upward mid-year and locking in long-term agreements that give ASML multi-year order visibility it has not enjoyed in years.
The scale of the divergence between end markets stood out. Memory-related net system sales are now expected to grow over 75% this year, while advanced logic/foundry system sales grow over 25%. CFO Roger Dassen said the company now plans to ship around 65 Low-NA EUV systems in 2026, up more than 45% year-over-year, alongside roughly 130 immersion DUV shipments. Installed Base Management revenue, largely upgrade business on the existing fleet, is expected to grow over 30% as customers squeeze more output from constrained cleanroom space.
Management Signals a Shift Toward Pricing Power
The most notable new disclosure came in response to a pointed question from UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies about whether ASML has room to reprice its Low-NA EUV tools given TSMC's public comments that High-NA systems remain too expensive. Dassen did not dodge the question. "The current environment provides more flexibility for pricing than what you would have had in different days," he said, adding that ASML is "executing on that as well." He was careful to note the effect will not show up immediately given long order lead times, but the acknowledgment that ASML is actively working to capture more value from customers, rather than simply relying on productivity-linked ASP increases, is a meaningful data point for a company that has historically been reluctant to discuss pricing dynamics this explicitly.
Later in the call, in response to Wolfe Research's Chris Caso, Dassen reiterated the point, saying ASML believes it can "capture a larger share of that value" given the value it delivers to customers in the current environment, again stressing that any repricing would show up "over time" rather than immediately given the backlog structure.
Capacity Plans Extend Visibility Into 2028
ASML disclosed it is "close to being fully covered" with orders for Low-NA EUV in 2027 and is planning a 30% increase in Low-NA EUV capacity for that year, implying roughly 85 tools. For 2028, the company says it has already received a "significant number" of orders and is investigating a further 30% capacity increase, implying around 110 units. A parallel 30% capacity increase is planned for immersion DUV systems in 2027, with a further 30% expansion under investigation for 2028.
Management was explicit that these increases can be achieved within ASML's existing manufacturing footprint. "All the capacity increases, either planned or investigated, are based on our existing footprint," Fouquet said, noting the company has spent the past six to nine months optimizing cleanroom space rather than breaking ground on new facilities. Dassen added an important nuance: because the 2027 tool mix shifts from a blend of D and E models to primarily E and F models, the unit increase understates the real capacity add. "What you're looking at is not a 30% improvement of wafer capacity that we're adding, but approximately 45%," he said, once the higher throughput of newer models and ongoing upgrade sales to the installed base are factored in.
Analysts pressed on whether 85 and 110 units represent a ceiling. Dassen was clear ASML is not waiting for firm purchase orders before investing. "We're not waiting. We're preempting," he said of the 2028 scenario, noting the company doesn't yet have orders for 110 EUV Low-NA tools but is acting on strong demand signals from customers.
High-NA Reaches a Production Milestone With Intel
ASML confirmed that Intel Foundry is now using High-NA EUV technology on its 18A process node to produce a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors, a milestone the company called an important step in proving High-NA readiness in a production environment. Fouquet used the announcement to push back on the narrative, following TSMC's public comments, that High-NA pricing is out of step with the value it delivers. He argued the logic mirrors ASML's earlier transition to Low-NA EUV: cost advantages only materialize once the platform reaches sufficient maturity. "The key for High-NA to be cost-effective, to beat the cost of Low-NA plus immersion multi-patterning, is to bring High-NA to the right maturity," he said, calling the Intel milestone "maybe the strongest sign so far that we're getting there." Full-year 2026 High-NA system recognition remains unchanged at four to five tools.
On whether logic or memory customers adopt High-NA first at scale, Fouquet declined to pick a side, noting both segments are moving toward heavier multi-patterning on Low-NA over time and both are actively qualifying High-NA on product wafers.
Margin Trajectory Points Higher Into 2027
Gross margin came in at 54% in the quarter, above guidance, aided by high-margin components within the installed base business. Management guided third-quarter gross margin to 55%-57% and pointed to a further step-up in the fourth quarter, driven by a richer EUV mix, stronger immersion volumes in the back half after a deliberately weak first half, and continued installed-base strength. Dassen noted the company is effectively done shipping D-model EUV tools this year, as the underlying ZEISS optic is sold out, meaning 2027 shipments will consist entirely of higher-throughput E and F models. "That mix will come with a better ASP than the mix that we have this year, because it also will come with higher productivity... and also comes with a better gross margin profile," he said, while stopping short of guiding 2027 margins directly.
Operating Leverage Is Becoming a Structural Story
Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J. Muse flagged that second-quarter revenue grew roughly 35% year-over-year while operating expenses grew only about 6%, prompting a question about whether that ratio of incremental operating margin is sustainable. Dassen confirmed the company intends to keep managing R&D and SG&A tightly rather than scaling headcount in line with revenue, as it did in past upcycles. "We believe that with the team that we have today, we can really entertain a very aggressive roadmap going forward," he said, suggesting operating leverage should continue to improve in coming quarters rather than reverse.
China remained steady at around 20% of total net sales, in line with overall company growth and driven mainly by mainstream logic demand, suggesting no material change in the geographic mix despite the broader capacity buildout. ASML set its next Capital Markets Day for June 10, 2027, where it will update longer-term targets to reflect the shift in market and technology dynamics since the prior update.