Eli Lilly: Medicare Bridge Hits 600,000 Users as Foundayo Captures 30% of Oral GLP-1 Starts
Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, September 14, 2026
Eli Lilly disclosed a cluster of previously unreported commercial metrics at Morgan Stanley's 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, giving investors their clearest look yet at how the Medicare Bridge program and the Foundayo oral GLP-1 launch are actually performing in the field. Ilya Yuffa, Lilly's Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities, walked through data that suggests both initiatives are ahead of where skeptics feared, even as broader commercial insurance coverage remains stuck.
Medicare Bridge Program Already at 600,000 Users
The standout disclosure was uptake on the Medicare Bridge program, which Yuffa said has already reached close to 600,000 people, a figure he attributed to Dr. Oz. Roughly 20 million Medicare beneficiaries are estimated to be eligible under the program's unified criteria, which Yuffa contrasted with the fragmented prior-authorization rules that vary plan to plan on the commercial side. "One unique aspect of the Bridge program is that it's a unified set of criteria on people that -- different BMI, different comorbidities, but it's standard across the entire Medicare eligibility criteria," he said. Importantly for the revenue mix, 60% to 70% of Bridge enrollees are new patients rather than conversions from Lilly's existing self-pay channel, and the $50 flat out-of-pocket cost has driven a clear preference toward injectables and specifically Zepbound's KwikPen. Yuffa declined to say how the 600,000 figure compares with internal forecasts, but the tone throughout was that uptake has outpaced expectations on both patient volume and the injectable mix.
On what happens when the program's current structure lapses at the end of 2027, Yuffa pointed to a newly published Zepbound cost-of-care study as ammunition for an extension. The study, focused on patients 55 and older, found direct medical cost savings beginning as early as six months into treatment, reaching up to $600 per month per person by month twelve, enough to more than offset the cost of the drug itself. "That accumulation of evidence will start to increase, which should convince many employers and payers," he said, while acknowledging "it will take time and more than just one study to change the complete calculus."
Commercial Coverage Stuck at 50%, Employer Decisions Coming This Month
Away from Medicare, the picture is less dynamic. Yuffa said commercial coverage has been "relatively stagnant" at roughly 50%, with some employers dropping coverage even as others weigh adding it. He does not expect a step change into 2027 in either direction. The near-term catalyst is the annual benefits-decision cycle, typically finalized before October, and Lilly is running active conversations through both PBM channels and its own Employer Connect program alongside a network of more than 20 third-party wraparound service providers. Investors should treat next month's employer benefit announcements as a real datapoint on where commercial coverage trends for 2027, rather than assuming steady-state economics.
Foundayo Crosses 30% Share of New Oral Starts
On the oral GLP-1 launch, Lilly disclosed that Foundayo has surpassed 30% share of new starts within the oral GLP-1 category, which Yuffa called "a marked improvement just in the last 2 months." Trialist counts have grown past the 36,000 figure shared at the second-quarter print, and physicians who have tried the drug are increasingly converting patients to ongoing use. Pressed on whether Lilly can reach majority share in orals, Yuffa did not commit to a timeline but was unambiguous on ambition: "I challenge my team to get leading share in pretty much any market... We've done that with elora. We've done that with Zepbound. We've done that with Jardiance... and we'll continue to challenge our teams to do that with Foundayo." Second-fill data, an early proxy for persistence, is tracking in line with other oral therapies and not far behind injectables, according to Yuffa, though he was careful to note gold-standard adherence in this class still belongs to injectables like Trulicity, which averages roughly 16 months of persistence versus under 8 months for typical chronic therapies.
Ex-U.S. Rollout Broadening, Framed as Additive Not Cannibalistic
Internationally, Foundayo has launched in the UAE and UK, with Saudi Arabia and Mexico now approved and submissions pending across more than 40 markets. Yuffa characterized early ex-U.S. results as expansive rather than cannibalistic to Mounjaro, a distinction that matters given roughly 75% of ex-U.S. obesity/diabetes markets remain self-pay. He also flagged a new obesity reimbursement approval in France as incremental to an otherwise self-pay-dominated international landscape.
Generic Semaglutide Read-Through: Volume Expands, Brand Loyalty Persists
On the looming threat of generic semaglutide in markets like India, Canada, and soon Brazil, Yuffa offered a relatively constructive framework, likening the dynamic to the erectile dysfunction category: generics tend to expand the overall treated population, compressing share but not absolute volume. "What we're also seeing... is that the overall volume, absolute volume is continuing to grow for Mounjaro in those markets," he said, while conceding that brand loyalty's staying power against pure generic economics is "hard to predict." The read-through for Foundayo specifically leans on Lilly's argument that a broad multi-mechanism portfolio, plus Foundayo's positioning as a true small-molecule, once-daily, anytime pill, gives it structural differentiation that a commoditized injectable market may lack.
Retatrutide and Eloralintide: Bookending the Efficacy Curve
On pipeline assets, Yuffa positioned retatrutide as serving both ends of the obesity spectrum, delivering bariatric-surgery-like efficacy at higher doses for patients underserved by current therapies, while lower doses replicate tirzepatide-level efficacy with a favorable tolerability profile. He was careful to protect tirzepatide's current standing, noting "the standard of care has been tirzepatide and Zepbound... it will take time to build retatrutide in that space." Eloralintide drew a more pointed statistic: Phase II data showed roughly 13% efficacy as monotherapy at the lowest, best-tolerated dose, scaling toward 20% with placebo-like tolerability, and the company is also studying it in combination with tirzepatide. Yuffa's comments echo CFO Ruth Gimeno's characterization of the program at ADA as potentially the largest Phase III development effort in Lilly's history, underscoring the scale of capital Lilly is committing to eloralintide relative to its existing obesity franchise.
Alzheimer's: Kisunla Holding Share Against Leqembi's New Subcutaneous Option
Asked about Biogen's newly approved subcutaneous Leqembi for induction, Yuffa expressed confidence in Kisunla's once-monthly IV dosing and fixed-duration treat-to-target profile, while shifting the conversation toward diagnostic bottlenecks rather than share competition. He noted Lilly has doubled the number of patients being treated but argued the bigger opportunity for both companies lies in scaling blood-based biomarkers to shorten the diagnosis-to-treatment window, which remains, in his words, "a messy process" that "takes too long."