Schaeffler Cuts 2028 Revenue Targets as US E-Mobility Retreats, But Unveils EUR 350 Million Humanoid Order Book to Offset the Blow
Q2 2026 earnings call, August 5, 2026
Schaeffler AG used its second-quarter earnings call to confirm what it had already flagged in an ad hoc disclosure the week prior: the German auto and industrial supplier is trimming its 2028 revenue growth target from a range of 27% to 29% down to 24% to 26%, a cut CEO Klaus Rosenfeld attributed squarely to an unraveling of e-mobility demand assumptions in the United States. "We decided that on a more realistic and credible basis, the old ranges for e-mobility were too aggressive," Rosenfeld told analysts, adding that the disclosure "created a little bit of turbulence. I understand this, but we had to follow the rules also in the best interest of our reputation with authorities."
The more consequential number sits inside the E-Mobility division itself, where the 2028 EBIT margin target was slashed from a range above 0% down to negative 4% to 0%. Rosenfeld, who is nearing the end of his tenure as CEO, was candid about the disappointment. "This doesn't mean that we give up on profitability in E-Mobility. I'm firmly convinced that this is possible," he said, while acknowledging "we also needed to be realistic, and I hope that you appreciate that realism." Order intake in the order book fell from an order intake of 2.6 times to just 2 times in the first half, landing at the low end of the range and forcing the recalibration.
Diversification hedge holds the line on margin and cash flow
Despite the top-line cut, Schaeffler held its group-level EBIT margin target at 6% to 8% and kept its free cash flow target for 2028 unchanged, a point Rosenfeld framed as validation of the company's much-repeated diversification thesis. The offset came from two other divisions: Powertrain & Chassis (PTC) saw its midterm margin target raised by 0.5 percentage points, and Vehicle Lifetime Solutions (VLS) received a similar upgrade after posting margins consistently above 15% for several quarters. CFO Christophe Hannequin made the underlying logic explicit on the call, noting that in the U.S. market specifically, "what goes away on the mobility side comes back on at least partially, if not completely, on the PTC side and vehicles need propulsion regardless of the technical solution." Order book data support the argument: PTC's book-to-bill sits at 0.8 times even as unit volumes decline, while margins in that business are holding at a strong 22.4% gross level.
First-ever humanoid order book disclosure: EUR 350 million, deliberately lowballed
The headline new disclosure was Schaeffler's first-ever published order book figure for its humanoid robotics business: EUR 350 million as of June 30, sourced from three global humanoid OEMs across three regions and seven products. Management was explicit that the number understates the real opportunity, having applied haircuts "above 50%" on customer-supplied volume estimates to avoid overpromising. "We are the first ones to do that," Rosenfeld said, framing the disclosure as a template the company will now update quarterly. The only customer Schaeffler is permitted to name is the humanoid maker behind the "iron humanoid," with start of production slated for the fourth quarter of 2026; two additional U.S.-based customers remain unnamed due to confidentiality restrictions. Sample orders for 2026 have already crossed 50, well above all of 2025, and Schaeffler is leaning on what it calls a decisive manufacturing advantage in forming technology, which the company says cuts production time "from minutes to seconds" versus competing methods. Rosenfeld reiterated the company's long-standing market assumption of 1 million humanoid units by 2035 and a target of at least 10% share, with bill-of-materials content per robot still calculated at roughly 50%, driven by joints, ball screws, and actuators rather than batteries. Notably, a disclosed contract with Humanoid AI was deliberately excluded from the EUR 350 million figure because it did not meet the company's internal criteria as of June 30, underscoring how conservative the number is meant to be.
New early-retirement window adds up to 1,300 more headcount reductions in Germany
Alongside earnings, Schaeffler disclosed a second, separate press release reopening an early-retirement instrument used to manage its German workforce, an option under threat as the German government reconsiders the program's future. Management confirmed it has already secured works council approval to extend the offer, targeting an additional 1,300 headcount reduction on top of the original November 2024 restructuring plan, which management said it is already "overachieving," with 4,700 departures now expected to reach roughly 6,000 by June 2027, ahead of schedule. Rosenfeld characterized the move as opportunistic rather than a new formal program, saying the company expects "an immediate positive mid- to double-digit effect in 2027," though he declined to size the associated one-off cash and P&L costs until enrollment closes at the end of September and contracts are finalized by the end of November.
Q2 operating performance solid despite flat top line
Group sales were essentially flat year-over-year at minus 0.3%, but gross margin improved by a full percentage point and EBIT margin rose to 4.5% from 3.5%, with EPS positive at EUR 0.10. Hannequin noted that roughly half of the EUR 40 million year-over-year improvement in production cost came from procurement performance, with the rest from structural cost initiatives. Pricing was notably favorable, aided by a one-off customer settlement plus genuine mix improvement in e-mobility, VLS, and Bearings & Industrial Solutions (BIS). BIS delivered the strongest margin story of the quarter, with gross profit margin up sharply on the back of footprint consolidation and a 1,650-person headcount reduction, though sales growth there was modest at 3.4% amid ongoing softness in China's wind and industrial markets.
Free cash flow remains negative through H1, full-year guidance unchanged
Free cash flow was negative EUR 300 million through the first half, worse than the prior year, driven by a deliberate build-up in inventory to buffer against Middle East-related supply chain risk, cautious e-mobility capex timing, and elevated restructuring cash outflows. Management nonetheless reiterated its full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance of EUR 100 million to EUR 300 million, citing Schaeffler's historically strong seasonal skew toward the third and fourth quarters. Leverage ticked up to 2.4 times, which Hannequin described as seasonal and expected to normalize by year-end, helped by a successful EUR 1 billion bond issuance in May.
Tax rate overhang persists, no near-term relief expected
Bank of America's Horst Schneider pressed on Schaeffler's elevated effective tax rate, which the company had previously guided toward 100% before settling near 60%. Hannequin attributed the distortion to a structural imbalance in which the German tax pool runs at a loss while profits generated in China and the U.S. are taxed locally, adding that fixing the mismatch "will evolve over the lifetime of, let's say, our midterm targets" and declining to commit to a specific improvement trajectory even by 2028.
Defense business still pre-revenue, but leadership team now in place
Unlike humanoids, Schaeffler's nascent defense unit has no disclosed order book yet. Rosenfeld highlighted recent senior hires, including a 25-year defense industry veteran and an external CFO with start-up experience joining January 1, as evidence the unit is being built with the same discipline applied to humanoids, with a public order book to follow "when we are ready."