Third quarter 2026 earnings call, November 4, 2026

AV economics: utilization is the argument, and financing is the next test

The most consequential disclosure on Uber's call was how management intends to pay for an autonomous vehicle ecosystem it now wants to scale from roughly 700 fully driverless vehicles on the network by year-end to more than 2,000 by the end of 2027, and then to "tens of thousands" in 2028 and beyond. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy said the long-run expectation is that the fleets "should be financed by third-party capital, not by Uber's balance sheet." He pointed to the $1 billion Santander facility set up earlier this year for traditional fleet partners as a "template," and said announcements on both infrastructure and vehicle financing should be expected. Near term, he said capital deployment against 2,000 vehicles is "fairly limited," with third-party money intended for the 10,000-plus vehicle phase.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi was candid about the obstacle. Conventional fleet financing, such as rental car fleets, is underwritten on residual vehicle values, and "the residual value of AV vehicles isn't established yet." In the early days, Uber will therefore carry vehicles on its own balance sheet, and financing will lean on revenue potential rather than collateral value. The case Uber intends to make to lenders rests on utilization: a 30% premium for vehicles on its network, plus the flexibility to move a vehicle to a different owner if a fleet operator fails and still have it earn on Uber. Khosrowshahi said prospective capital providers, who "want to diversify away from data centers," have been interested, but he acknowledged that Uber must still establish the business model and demonstrate the utilization advantage to banks. This is unproven, and the financing structure remains the key gating item for the 2028 scale-up.

Wolfe Research's Shweta Khajuria asked how durable the 30% lift in paid trips is. Krishnamurthy gave the most detailed answer to date, with a caveat on the comparison. The 30% figure compares Uber's hybrid deployments in the U.S. with mature first-party deployments that benefit from San Francisco, "a uniquely favorable market for AV deployments today." In newer markets launched this year, he said, both Waymo and Tesla are seeing trips per vehicle per day "in the low teens versus high 20s that we are seeing on our network in these hybrid markets," equivalent to "100% plus utilization for us." He also argued for advantages in OEM pricing from scale and in shared charging, maintenance and fleet infrastructure, likening it to "the hyperscalers getting advantage versus on-prem data centers that were serving one corporate." The stated goal is AV trip margins comparable to human-driven trips over time, with savings shared with consumers only after that point.

The partner roadmap is broad. Zoox launches on Uber in Las Vegas later this month and Motional moves to fully driverless soon after. In 2027, Uber expects to add Nuro in California and Houston, Avride in Texas around mid-year, and Pony and Momenta internationally, with vehicle-operator testing rides alongside NVIDIA, Rivian, Waabi and Wayve late in the year. Khosrowshahiargued that because Uber already has city relationships, operations and demand, partners can launch "at very high utilizations."

Mobility: supply, not demand, is the constraint, and it is widening

Management acknowledged that Mobility growth came in below expectations because driver supply did not keep pace with demand in several international markets. This is broader than last quarter's Brazil moto-delivery issue. Krishnamurty said elevated fuel prices tied to the escalation of the war in the Middle East are hitting price-sensitive emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, on both the rider and driver side, while immigration dynamics are weighing on supply in Canada. Seasonal peak demand from September through December compounds the year-over-year pressure, as Khosrowshahi noted, and in Brazil two-wheel supply serves both Mobility and Delivery.

Uber is responding with targeted spending on driver acquisition, retention and engagement. It said global supply hours growth accelerated in October, with notable improvement in Brazil and India. Gross bookings growth guidance is unchanged at 18% to 22%. Krishnamurthy framed it as "a good problem," but it is a real one, and the immigration and fuel drivers are unlikely to reverse quickly, a point raised by Bernstein's Nikhil Devnani.

On margins, Evercore's Mark Mahaney asked whether supply investments threaten the Mobility segment's roughly 8% margin. Management would not call out any meaningful change in trajectory, though Krishnamurthy said Q4 supply spending would affect take rate. Khosrowshahi described the mechanism: Uber has shifted flexible incentive dollars from riders to drivers, whereas last year more went to rider price reductions. "That does mean sometimes higher prices for riders, which is something that we watch out for," he said, adding that Uber will trade off against profitability. The Q4 guidance implies non-GAAP EPS growth of 37% at the midpoint, following 35% in Q3.

The U.S. looks healthier. Growth moderated in Q3, but less than internationally. Insurance tailwinds continue to lift California trip growth, and U.S. barbell products, which include Wait & Save, Comfort and Reserve Black, grew at 3x the overall business. Less than 10% of eligible consumers in sparse markets used Uber in the past 12 months, versus 50% in dense markets. Management did not directly address Wells Fargo's question on AV penetration in California and Texas beyond noting California's outperformance.

Delivery and grocery: organic acceleration and a vertical integration question

Delivery gross bookings rose 23%, with organic growth accelerating, and U.S. Delivery organic growth accelerated for a second consecutive quarter. Khosrowshahi attributed this partly to mix, as grocery and retail, now a $15 billion run rate growing 40%, and direct business outgrow restaurants, and partly to a core restaurant acceleration driven by a roughly 12% increase in U.S. merchants. Members now account for 70% of Delivery gross bookings, and advertising and merchant-funded promotions exceed $10 billion. The main constraint is courier supply, which management called "the biggest challenge" in Delivery.

On grocery, Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak asked about first-party dark stores. Uber's stance is selective. Khosrowshahi said the priority remains helping partners grow, but he highlighted the dark-store and quick commerce business that comes with the hoped-for Delivery Hero acquisition, which he said has reached breakeven after 7 to 8 years of building. Krishnamurthy said Uber would be "fit-for-purpose" about it, citing the Middle East via Delivery Hero, Türkiye through the Getir transaction, and an organic experiment in Taiwan, and would otherwise work with grocery partners. Note that the Delivery Hero deal had not closed, and the language was "hopeful potential acquisition."

On the proposed DoorDash and Instacart combination, Khosrowshahiplayed down any direct hit: "I don't think, honestly, it's going to affect us too much." He said merchants have already approached Uber, both worried and eager to build alternatives to avoid dependence on one platform, and left the competitive outcome to regulators.

Capital allocation: M&A pauses while integration catches up

Uber is shifting emphasis toward organic growth, the $10 billion AV commitment and opportunistic buybacks, and pulling back on M&A to focus on integrating announced deals. Khosrowshahi grouped acquisitions into geographic expansion (Delivery Hero, Trendyol Go), specialized capabilities (Blacklane, ezCater, supporting premium, which grew 35%, and Uber for Business, which grew almost 50%) and new products (SpotHero). Krishnamurthy defended ezCater as a build-versus-buy decision that "could not be more obvious," as the business is profitable and the build alternative would imply "a few hundred million dollars of profit swing." Management said the acquired businesses are performing above deal cases.

AI agents: strategically discussed, commercially negligible so far

The most sobering data point of the call came on third-party AI agents. In a peak Halloween week with about 320 million trips and orders across Uber and Uber Eats, agents generated "around 500 orders total" for Eats and "a grand total of 4 trips" for rides. Uber is prioritizing the direct experience, citing a 50-second mean ride booking, 75% of rides as single-tap, and a 90-second median reorder time. Khosrowshahi referenced his travel-industry past: "I used to work in the travel business where we were dependent on the Googles of the world. I don't want to go back there." Its own Cart Assistant is producing baskets roughly twice the average size. Uber is negotiating terms with what Khosrowshahi counted as 8 assistants, with more than 10 expected, and expects a net positive for demand, but with scale this limited, the economics are still theoretical.

Headline metrics and management change

The quarter delivered 215 million monthly active platform consumers, a fifth consecutive quarter of gross bookings growth above 20%, 35% non-GAAP EPS growth and record trailing 12-month free cash flow of $10.4 billion, with about 55 million Uber One members. Separately, President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Jill Hazelbaker is leaving after 10 years to join OpenAI. Khosrowshahi said her team is ready to step into larger roles, several reporting to him directly.