What Are the Odds: Big Data Poll Shows a 20-Point Democratic Enthusiasm Edge as Iran-War Energy Inflation Fractures Trump's 2024 Coalition
September 14, 2026 | Pollster Rich Baris and attorney Robert Barnes preview Big Data Poll's unreleased national survey ahead of the November midterms
The Poll Is Worse Than the Hosts Expected
Rich Baris of Big Data Poll opened the episode by saying the weekend's raw numbers "did not go well for Republicans," and he was candid that he had hoped for better. "I was hoping Republicans would improve in this poll. I really was. Unfortunately, I'm just not seeing much evidence of that." The full national survey is due the next day, and Baris deliberately withheld Senate and governor results until they are weighted. What he previewed was nonetheless stark. Democrats lead 56% to 36% on the generic ballot among "extremely enthusiastic" voters, up from 52% to 38% last month. The unscreened registered-voter sample shows roughly D+10, and Baris said that is before any likely-voter screen is applied. Barnes said the environment is "D plus 10 nationwide," with swings of 15 to 20 points in parts of Ohio, Iowa and the Southwest. He added that no double-digit midterm has occurred since partisan sorting hardened after 1994.
Independents were the most striking figure. Baris said true independents, meaning those who do not lean toward either party, favor Democrats by about 30 points. In the Senate-focused sample, Democrats lead independents 44% to 23% before leaners are allocated. The lead widens to 48% to 26% on a preliminary likely-voter filter, and he expects it to grow once his final screen is applied. He described the national electorate as resembling "Harris plus three," meaning a 2024 Harris-friendly turnout pool with a few extra points for Democrats. Barnes attributed this to many 2024 Trump voters simply not showing up in a midterm. He argued that any model calibrated to the 2024 vote will therefore miss.
The Convention Bump Was Mostly a Reshuffle
The Republican convention did lift the Republican share of the likely electorate. It had been an "abysmal" 29% to 30% and is now tracking toward 34% to 35%. According to Baris, though, the gain was largely a transfer. Voters who had been calling themselves independents moved back into the Republican column and left a more Democratic independent pool behind. "What they effectively did at this point was a trade-off," he said. He questioned whether there is much more to gain. He also noted that Democrats are actively working against complacency, which is why some are publicly calling North Carolina a "dead heat" when his own polling shows Roy Cooper ahead.
The Senate Map and House Exposure
Barnes forecast Democratic Senate gains of at least six seats, with an outer range of 57 to 58 in a full wave. He said the surprises would come in traditionally red states with anti-war and populist streaks. His list included South Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska and Montana, and he said Alaska's Dan Sullivan is probably an underdog. Several specifics stood out. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is running almost 20 points ahead of Trump's 2024 margin. In South Dakota, the Democratic nominee dropped out and endorsed independent Brian Bengs. In Texas, Baris said Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by about 30 points among independents and about 35 points among Hispanics. In Ohio, Baris said a Vivek Ramaswamy-led ticket is running about 15 points weaker in the Ohio Valley than he would expect, with Amy Acton ahead for governor and Sherrod Brown benefiting.
On the House side, Barnes pointed to behavior as evidence. Republican-aligned money is not being spent in Arkansas 2 or in Hispanic-influenced Texas districts that Trump carried by 15 points or more. Barnes also noted that only Democrats are releasing congressional polling. He projected 230 to 240-plus Democratic House seats and suggested prediction-market margin-of-victory contracts are underpricing Republican underperformance. Baris separately flagged Hispanic voters as a core problem. In his subsample, which he said totals several hundred respondents and about 12% of the sample, Republicans hold 27% and Democrats lead roughly 2 to 1.
The Macro Narrative: Energy, Rates and Sentiment
The economic case was built almost entirely on cost of living, which Baris called the "number one issue" and on which he said Trump's strong disapproval is 51.2%. Barnes argued the inflection came with the Iran war. He said gasoline is up about 30% since inauguration, with heating oil and electricity also higher. He said the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5% and mortgage rates are back above 7%. He said a disinflationary trend and falling yields reversed "directly timed to the Iran war," and that the earlier trend was heading toward tax-refund checks reaching households in February and March. He cited second-order effects from disrupted Gulf supply of diesel, fertilizer, helium and sulfur, and said Europe faces a costly winter on liquefied natural gas. In his view, price pass-through typically lags by three to six months, so the damage would begin showing up in October.
Barnes made several unverified claims in this section, and investors should treat them as such. He said the Houthis have knocked the Saudi pipeline offline and that strategic reserves have been drawn down, with China resuming purchases. He also described a chain running from Japanese import costs to yen weakness and Treasury selling, and then to a yen carry-trade unwind that could drain Western liquidity. We could not independently confirm these events from the program. They are best read as the hosts' risk scenario, not reported fact.
The sentiment and labor data cited were in line with the thesis. Baris said University of Michigan consumer sentiment is among the lowest readings recorded, and Barnes compared the trough to 1982. Real average hourly earnings were described as negative, labor force participation as at a five-year low, and the labor share of GDP as the lowest on record. A Gallup measure of perceived government corruption was said to be at a record, with only 11% saying the government is not corrupt. Barnes also cited Case-Shiller home prices up 230% since January 2000 and the rent component of shelter up 140%. He put real hourly earnings growth over the same period at 13%. Baris voiced suspicion about composition anomalies in last month's jobs report, which he said he was still vetting. He offered no evidence, so that remains an open question. Baris's central point was about perception. "You can't tout what you did in the first six months and ignore how people feel about the last 12 months. Economic gains and progress, and how people feel when they go to the ballot box, is all about sentiment."
Barnes also argued that the administration's dependence on AI capital spending for growth is exposed to higher borrowing costs. He said rural voters are turning against data center buildouts, and he suggested the issue is hurting Republicans in farm states. He conceded his scenario assumes an AI equity bubble does not burst before November.
A Fractured 2024 Coalition, Without a Democratic Realignment
The hosts argued Trump's 2024 coalition rested on anti-war Midwestern voters, industrial workers, younger voters and Black and Hispanic men. They said the Iran conflict, tariff handling and persistent cost pressures have alienated each group. Baris read the verbatim response of an Ohio respondent, a registered Republican and former MAGA supporter, who ranked foreign policy 11th of 12 issues and strongly disapproved of nearly every administration policy except immigration. "I'm just extremely disappointed. But now nobody gives two damns about us little people. I thought he did. Stupid me. Never again." Asked about a generic Senate ballot, the voter chose the Republican. Given named candidates, the voter picked the Libertarian.
That detail goes to a point both hosts stressed about third parties. Barnes said, "There has been a disalignment from the Trump 2024 coalition, but not a realignment to the Democratic brand." Baris said Libertarian candidates are drawing double digits in some House polling and about 6% in Minnesota, near the 8% threshold the party needs to secure future ballot access. Barnes said this siphoning is hurting Republicans, with South Carolina among the examples.
Political Fallout and What They Concede
Barnes projected that a wave of 53 or more Democratic Senate seats could open a path to removing Trump, citing Republican senators he said would defect. Investors should discount that claim. Conviction in a Senate trial requires 67 votes, not 54, and the argument rested on assertion about senators' private intentions. His more defensible point was that Vice President Vance's 2028 prospects depend on how Republicans respond to a rout, and he said Vance's "only chance" is to get a chance to prove himself.
The hosts also acknowledged limits on their own work. Baris said the likely-voter screen is proprietary and unfinished. He said "a lot of people that say likely to vote just don't vote," and he warned that panel-only polling is risky for state races in a midterm. His Public Polling Project is about 10% to 12% funded against a goal he described as 25 (in thousands of dollars, presumably), and he said he may skip final Senate polls. The broadcast also doubled as promotion for Baris's forthcoming book, and large stretches were devoted to partisan commentary and unsubstantiated allegations about foreign leaders and Justice Department figures. We have not relied on those passages. The polling methodology, particularly the Hispanic subsample and the unweighted state data, will determine how much of this holds up when the full release arrives.